The cost of the problem

Stockouts cost the average retailer 4.1% of sales. Overstock takes another 3.2%.

Inventory distortion is a $1.7 trillion problem: 6.2% of all retail sales, every year. Roughly two thirds of it is inventory that wasn't there; the rest is inventory that was there and shouldn't have been.

IHL Group, 2026 revision (previously $1.73tn / 6.5%) · Corsten & Gruen · 65.6% out-of-stocks, 34.4% overstocks
On your turnover

What that is, on a typical mid-market turnover.

The averages applied to one turnover. Yours will differ, which is exactly the conversation to have on your own data.

R500m turnover

About R20.5m a year to stockouts.

Overstock another R16m. Roughly R36m gone to inventory you didn't have, and inventory you couldn't sell.

Averages from IHL Group. The better number is the one below: your own safety stock, as working capital.

Why it persists

Everybody knows the number. Almost nobody can see it happening in time to stop it.

The systems that could see it cost six figures and take a year to install. The ones you can afford can't think, so safety stock stands in for computation, and the bill for that is the 3.2%.

And the two losses hide each other. A line out of stock for six weeks looks exactly like a slow seller, so the next order is cut, so it stocks out again. The report says demand fell. Most systems can't tell the two apart, so they fix neither.

Six tiles across the top of Analytics: revenue and profit in window (masked); stocked out 59%, 157,322 of 268,689 line-weeks; black-hole capital, 2,736 lines and 36,705 units held and never sold; capital to release, 1,555 lines over the 105-day policy; 40 sellers running dry.
Look at the first two tiles. 59% of line-weeks on this estate were stocked out. 2,736 lines sat on the shelf, or in the back, and never sold a unit. Both losses, side by side, on one screen. For you: the 4.1% and the 3.2% stop being an industry average and become two counts from your own data, in the first run. Analytics · demo estate · quantities and time; money masked
Safety stock as working capital

Safety stock is an insurance premium. Here is the price list.

Safety stock scales with the service-level z-score, and the curve is not straight. Moving a line from 95% to 99% availability adds 41% to its safety stock. Moving it back releases 29%. The last half a point costs more than the first four.

A static safety-stock number is a fixed premium against a variable risk. The lines that genuinely need cover do not get enough of it; the lines that do not need it get far too much.

Standard normal-demand safety-stock model. The z-ratios are textbook, not a RetailPulse output.

Safety stock against availability target index, 95% = 100
your current target the level that would do
The working-capital calculator

What is 29% of the safety stock on that share worth to you in cash?

Your numbers, in your currency. Nothing you type here leaves this page.

−29%safety stock on that share, moving from the current target to the level that would do
safety-stock capital on that share today (enter unit cost and units)
working capital a differentiated policy releases

Standard safety-stock arithmetic. Your numbers, not ours, and no claim about what we'd save you. Safety stock ∝ z(target); released = capital × (1 − z(would do) ÷ z(current)).

What fixing it should cost

Live in 48 hours, not next winter.

Enterprise planning suites: $60,000–$180,000 a year, six to twelve months to go live, and a services line quoted on time and materials.

RetailPulse: a fraction of that, live within 48 hours of the box being plugged in, on an appliance in your building. We quote implementation as a fixed number, because we know what it takes.

There is no rate card here, on purpose. The number depends on your estate, and we would rather show you the product on your own data first and talk about price at the end, as a relief rather than a pitch.

Enterprise suiteCheap inventory toolRetailPulse
Time to live6–12 monthsDays48 hours
Annual cost$60k–$180kLowA fraction of enterprise
Plans the shelf and works the shelfSome of itNoYes
Explains every recommendationRarelyNoIn a sentence
Runs onTheir cloudTheir cloudAn appliance in your building
Bill when you growGrowsGrowsThe price is the price
Including next year

Add SKUs, add stores, add users. The price is the price.

Everyone else charges you more for succeeding, because their costs scale with your growth: per SKU, per warehouse, per user, per rand of inventory. Ours don't. It runs in your building.

That removes the most common source of mid-market renewal friction: the bill that crept up 40% because you opened four stores.

See it on your own data

See it on your own data.

Twelve weeks, one category, anonymised by you. A ten-minute job, not a project. Send it Thursday and you'll have the findings the following Wednesday.

  1. 1 · The extract"Twelve weeks, one category, anonymised by you." A ten-minute job, not a project. No NDA drama, no IT ticket, nothing to approve.
  2. 2 · The findings"Here is what it found in your data." The engine has never met a real dataset it did not find something embarrassing in. Evidence about you, not persuasion.
  3. 3 · Run-alongside"Eight weeks. It doesn't touch anything." Zero operational risk; your own scorecard.
  4. 4 · Founding agreement"One of three places." By then you have your own proof, and the scarcity is real.
Send the extract

A personal reply within 24 hours, from Rob, not a sequence.